The preceding post garnered a lot of hits, but some readers appeared to have missed the point, which wasn’t “SWTOR is going to suck,” but “SWTOR is almost certain to be a huge financial failure.” Whether it’s good or not is almost irrelevant.
The trouble is not any worry I have about the game’s quality – I expect it to be a very good game, although I have deep concerns about how good an MMO it will make. The trouble is that Bioware may have spent $300 million to make it.
If so, they’re in a position that’s virtually untenable. It’d have to not just sell spectacularly, but be the same kind of breakout hit that WoW was to a much smaller market. In other words, it would have to do better than WoW did at launch – and I have to think that’s incredibly unlikely to happen.
The quality of the game almost doesn’t matter – the issue is spending $200-300 million on it. And this kind of budget is getting more common with time. What we need isn’t more $100+ million catastrophic failures. We need more modestly budgeted titles with a chance to launch sustainably and grow. We need less SWTOR and more Darkfall.